New-Build Cost, Price & Delay Stress Test

Teaching assumptions are provided to demonstrate the model. Replace them with your project evidence. Your inputs stay in this browser and are never sent to a pricing or AI service.

01 / Shared project

Set the starting position

Sale price per home ($) Hard cost per square foot ($) Site cost per home ($) Project duration (months) Target margin (% of revenue)

These edits update the shared project. Home count, size, land, fees and financing come from your full feasibility model. Land currently entered: $400,000; homes: 10.

02 / Combined scenario

Apply a deliberate stress

Sale price change (%) Negative means lower prices. The selling-cost percentage adjusts with revenue.Hard and site cost change (%) Soft costs, contingency and associated finance are recalculated.Additional delay (months) Extends the full project at the entered average draw and fixed monthly carry.

03 / Limits

The boundary of your target margin

Minimum selling price / home$539,9501.8% price reduction available before the target is missed. A negative figure means prices must rise.

Maximum construction escalation2.2%Changes hard and site costs together; holds sale price, land and duration fixed. Includes derived costs and financing.

Additional delay before target is missed5.1 monthsEach extra month costs $15,752 at the starting cost basis. Holds prices and construction costs fixed.

Each boundary changes one assumption at a time. They cannot all be spent together. No modeled exposure does not mean no real-world risk.

Starting project profit$905,40216.5% margin on revenue

Combined-stress profit$408,7807.8% margin on revenue

Profit change from stress-$496,622All three changes are calculated together, including cost–delay interaction.

Stressed target headroom-$374,970Below the target profit under this scenario.

04 / Verification priority

Where would better evidence matter most?

Enter plausible adverse changes that you want to test. These are your uncertainty ranges, not probabilities or forecasts. The ranking compares the dollar loss of target-margin headroom, one input at a time.

Sale-price downside to investigate (%) Cost overrun to investigate (%) Delay to investigate (months)

Verification priorities under your entered ranges
Priority	Adverse assumption	Target headroom lost	Evidence to collect
1. Construction costs	10% higher hard and site costs	$373,386	Verify quantities, quote inclusions, expiry, freight and site scope.
2. Sale price	5% lower sale prices	$220,000	Verify current new-home comparables, concessions and the product match.
3. Schedule	6 additional months	$94,511	Verify permit, utility, trade and delivery dates against the build schedule.

A large range can rank first simply because it is large. This is a sensitivity-based research priority, not a statistically estimated value of information. Correlations, staged closings, monthly debt draws and construction-stop choices are not modeled.

Test the buyer payment

Your project inputs stay in this browser unless you explicitly export or share them. Public source requests do not include your budgets.