Fewer permits. A recovery—or a warning?

A small annual change can follow a large cumulative rise.

By Q2 2026, the all-transactions index stood 47.5% above Q4 2019 in Houston and 77.0% above it in Charlotte. Those are nominal changes; they exclude inflation adjustment, operating income, financing and transaction costs. The chart uses Q1 2019 as its common starting quarter.

This price measure has a specific lens.

FHFA’s all-transactions series includes refinance appraisals alongside sales. Its coverage centers on single-family mortgage transactions acquired or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It is useful historical context, but a purchase-only index or current property comps can tell a different short-term story.

For an acquisition

Start with documented leases, collections, vacancy and operating costs. Compare effective rents after concessions and fees on a consistent basis. Then build a second case that delays leasing or lowers rent. The permit trend can inform that scenario; it cannot replace the property evidence.

For example, one free month on a 12-month lease at $2,000 advertised rent means $22,000 in first-year scheduled rent, or about $1,833 per month before other adjustments. An advertised-rent comparison that ignores this concession would overstate that first-year figure by about $167 a month.

For development or a later exit

Translate nearby authorized projects into a dated schedule: planned, started, under construction, completed, leasing and stabilized. Verify each stage independently. Overlap with a project’s lease-up matters more than a metro permit total taken alone.

Keep rent growth, operating-cost growth and exit assumptions separate. A lower entry price does not protect returns if insurance, repairs or debt costs rise. This report supplies cycle context; it does not estimate a cap rate, approve a deal or forecast a sale price.